Publication

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that global warming is indisputable, with evidence of “increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level” (IPCC, 2007). Investments, therefore, need to consider climate risks; else, these could underperform, or create or exacerbate risks.

This study examines currently available climate data and projections, and analyses gaps between the information available and information required for designing climate change adaptation projects.

The study illustrates that most projects implemented until the late 1990s focused on addressing vulnerability drivers and capacity gaps to reduce existing disaster risks. These projects may have been designed with the knowledge of current risks, but were not informed by climate change scenarios in view of future risks. Interventions are no-regret actions, which make sense in development terms, whether or not risk from climate change materialises. These projects could, however, lead to maladaptation, if climate trends and projections were not considered.

Most projects implemented after 2000 were designed using available climate information, even though they are of coarse resolution, to manage current and future risks from climate variability and change. Very few projects use or support the generation of downscaled climate information.