Topic Guide: Adaptation Decision Making under Uncertainty

Guideline / Manual / Toolkit

Topic Guide: Adaptation Decision Making under Uncertainty

AUTHORS: Dr. Nicola Ranger


June 2013


The Global Climate Adaptation Partnership (GCAP) is a member of the consortium of specialist organisations that is working with Evidence on Demand to produce a series of topic guides for the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Advisers in the UK Department for International Development (DFID).

Adaptation Decision Making under Uncertainty intends:

To stimulate thinking about two major issues: first, how climate change may alter the long-term outcomes of development interventions today and second, how such interventions can be better designed from the outset to have outcomes that enhance climate resilience and are themselves robust and adaptable to long-term stresses, like climate change.

As such it signposts information and introduces a range of concepts and tools for dealing with the changing and uncertain climate in designing and implementing development interventions. The key premise is that climate change will affect the long-term outcomes of many development interventions. Climate change and its uncertainties should not be an after-thought in development interventions – they must be addressed from the outset of the process and throughout the project cycle.