Reducing risks of tsunami, storm surges, large waves and other natural hazards in low elevation coastal zones
03 June 2013
BEST PRACTICE IN:
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
USD 1,000,001 - USD 5,000,000
May 2011 – April 2013
Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) for Africa and Asia; World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
RIMES and WMO are collaborating in the implementation of this project, each with the following roles:
• Technical inputs and guidance in the institutionalization and demonstration processes
• In-house research and development
• Grounding of TARNS in pilot communities
• Capacity building of disaster managers in vulnerable sectors, disaster management committees, community-based organizations, and pilot communities
• Generation of downscaled disaster risk information
• Capacity building of NMHSs and other stakeholders including NDMOs, in applying weather, water and climate information for disaster risk reduction
Supporters / Donors
ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster, and Climate Preparedness
About 3% of Asia’s land area is classified as low elevation coastal zone, yet it is home to 13% of the region’s population and 18% of its urban population. Of the top 10 countries in the world with largest population counts in low elevation coastal zones, eight are in Asia. Most are with heavily populated delta regions and are exposed to flood risks from rising tides, tropical storms, sea level rise, and combinations of high tides, large waves, storm surges and/or high river flows, in addition to tsunami. The poor and low-income groups are the most vulnerable. Despite these risks, coastal settlements, in particular urban, continue to attract more people and are growing more rapidly than inland, putting more people at risk to coastal hazards. Reducing risks through preparedness and mitigation is paramount, as migration away from these zones, though may be the most appropriate prevention measure, is not popular or acceptable.
The tsunami of 2004 stimulated an interest in and support to developing tsunami warning systems. Noting the general rarity of tsunamis in the region, a multi-hazard approach is necessary to be cost effective and ensure a sustainable warning system in the longer term. By covering high-frequency, but low impact coastal hazards, multi-hazard warning systems will be activated more often than a single-hazard warning system, and provide better functionality and reliability for dangerous low-frequency, but high-impact events, such as tsunamis. Multi-hazard warning systems allow regular interaction between warning information providers and users. In most countries of the region, however, including Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand, interaction is currently event response-based, hence disaster preparedness and response do not adequately meet the demands of situations created by emergencies. This was glaringly demonstrated by the enormous loss of lives (over 137,000 people dead or missing) and destruction wrought in Myanmar by tropical cyclone Nargis that struck on 2nd and 3rd May 2008; the environmental emergency that inflicted damage to homes, livelihoods and infrastructure in many parts of the Maldives as a result of large swell waves, which caused widespread flooding in the exposed islands during 15-18 May 2007; and, for the second time, large swell waves resulting from monsoon winds, which reached the Maldives during the period 17-19 June 2007, causing coastal flooding on its Northern Atolls.
Description of Intervention
The project would demonstrate methods and tools that institutions and stakeholders in the target countries could adopt, sustain, and replicate to upscale impacts. The project will build on the stakeholder meetings held in 2006 in the target countries, and would be expanded to include non-government organizations involved in disaster risk reduction, local authorities, and representatives of at-risk communities. Demonstrations will be conducted in two select coastal communities in each country. A preliminary list of sites is attached as Annex 7, which would be finalized in consultation with the national focal points.
Demonstration of the application of tailored location-specific warning/ disaster risk information in decision-making will use global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS)-based products, including those for marine forecasting, from the WMO’s Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS), for improving warnings service to end-users and generating location-specific disaster risk information. Downscaling factors are geophysical parameters, such as bathymetry and inland topography, soil characteristics, land use, etc. WMO and RIMES will facilitate training of NMHSs in preparing and providing downscaled products, user-focused, and tailored information for use by disaster managers. WMO’s Public Weather Services Programme and RIMES curricula on user training in warning information translation shall be adapted for each target country. RIMES will use its experience, good practice, and lessons learnt from its demonstration projects in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam in facilitating institution and capacity building.
The project will take an integrated multi-hazard approach to early warning in all target countries, recognizing that impacts of inundation on coastal areas are similar, though of different hazard sources. In Maldives, early warning for more recurrent large waves and storm surges will be improved and linked to the tsunami warning. In Myanmar, efforts will focus on addressing weaknesses exposed by Cyclone Nargis and its associated storm surges, which includes institutional capabilities to respond to warnings. In Sri Lanka, the project will take stock of all efforts by various organizations and how these have enhanced institutional and community preparedness, and identify gaps and actions to address gaps. In Thailand, focus will be given on enhancing synergy between warning systems for tsunami and storm-related coastal inundation.
Problems to be Addressed
Low elevation coastal zones, i.e. coastal areas with elevations less than 10 meters above sea level, cover two percent of the world’s land area, but contains 10 percent of the world’s population and 13 percent of the world’s urban population (refer to Table 1, Annex 2). Asia has 13 percent of its population living in low elevation coastal zones, which constitute only three percent of its total land area. Eight of the top ten countries with largest population residing in low elevation coastal zones are in Asia (refer to Table 2, Annex 2). Most are with heavily populated delta regions, and are exposed to flood risks from rising tides, tropical storms, sea level rise, and combinations of high tides, large waves, storm surges and/or high river flows. The poor and low-income groups are the most vulnerable. Despite these risks, coastal settlements, in particular urban, continue to attract more people and are growing more rapidly than inland, putting more people at risk to coastal hazards.
Migration away from these zones is a wise prevention measure, but not practical due to economic considerations. Reconstruction after the 2004 tsunami demonstrated the re-building in the same areas that suffered heavy toll. Reducing risks through preparedness and mitigation, in addition to policies that support inland urban development, then become the more acceptable option.
Coastal risk reduction involves actions at local, national and regional levels. Communities should have capacity to assess their risks and vulnerabilities, a periodically practiced emergency operations plan, infrastructure to receive and disseminate warnings, secure critical facilities, sustainable management of coastal and marine natural resources to prevent creation of new risks, diversified livelihoods to reduce dependence on coastal resources and enable them to bounce back more quickly from a disaster, and awareness of their risks and risk reduction measures. National, sub-national and local institutions provide an enabling environment for these to happen: regulations, policies, institutional and financial mechanisms that support risk reduction, and a robust early warning system that reaches communities at-risk. Regional and global institutions assist in developing institutional capacities and in bringing the best of science for local application to reduce risks.
The tsunami of 2004 provided impetus for development of tsunami warning systems. For most countries in the region, however, tsunami is a very infrequent hazard, hence the imperative to develop a tsunami warning system within a multi-hazard framework. UNESCO/IOC recognizes that tsunami warning coordination and operation should be within a multi-hazard approach, to be cost effective and sustainable. By covering several types of hazards, in particular high frequency, but low impact hazards, multi-hazard warning systems will be activated more often than any single-hazard warning system, and therefore should provide better functionality and reliability for dangerous low frequency, but high impact events, such as tsunamis. Multi-hazard warning systems allow continuous interaction between warning information providers and users.
Large swell waves resulting from monsoon winds in 2007, and storm surges associated with tropical cyclone Nargis in 2008, exposed institutional weaknesses at all levels in the generation, interpretation, translation, and communication of warning information, particularly for low-lying coastal zones prone to storm surges, large waves, and other coastal hazards, which this project seeks to address through specific capacity building initiatives.
Almost all of the countries in the Asian and African regions have the NMHSs as focal points for tsunami warning. NMHSs have the mandate for weather and related observations, forecasting, and issuing warning for marine-related hazards, including storm surges and large waves. Most NMHSs in the region are reasonably well-established, however, they have capacity gaps in relation to effective operations and in multi-hazard warning (refer to Table 4, Annex 2); adding tsunami warning, which is more demanding because of the very short lead time required, is a big challenge. It is therefore critical to build capacities of NMHSs and link them with the national disaster management community.
The WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (beneficiary countries – Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand – are Members of this Panel), at its 33rd session (Dhaka, Bangladesh, February 2006), agreed that it is critical to ensure that the tsunami early warning system in the Indian Ocean is linked with the existing tropical cyclone early warning system and storm surge forecasting to maximize the benefits of these capabilities for saving of life and property in the coastal regions. A task force was established at its 35th session (Manama, Bahrain, May 2008) to implement the proposed multi-hazard early warning concept. In addition, the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, at its 40th session (Macao, China, November 2007), recommended the formulation of a conceptual framework consistent with Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems. These developments in the regional arrangements to reduce disaster risks by multi-hazard approach will be benefited substantially by the implementation of this project.
The WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (PTC), at its 37th session (Phuket, Thailand, February 2010), noted the establishment of RIMES and its role in building capacity of its Member States for early warning of tsunami and other natural hazards. The relevant extract of the TCP report is as follows:
“In this connection, the Panel noted that a regional early warning facility for Indian Ocean and South-East Asia was established with funding from the ESCAP Tsunami Regional Trust Fund and DANIDA, at the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) campus in Pathumthani, Thailand. The facility is to build capacity for national early warning systems and enhance community resilience, i.e., to provide regional tsunami watch, to offer research and development support to NMHSs, and to enhance the capability of national systems to respond to early warning information at national, local, and at-risk community levels in line with the Hyogo Framework of Action. On 30 April 2009, the facility was reformulated as the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES), an inter-governmental, international, non-profit organization, whose mandate is to provide regional tsunami watch and advisory services, and build capacity of its Member Countries for early warning of tsunami and other natural hazards. Maldives serves as the current Secretariat to RIMES, and the Programme Unit at AIT campus is responsible for day-today operation and management of the regional early warning facility. Some Members of the Panel received localized disaster risk information from RIMES.”
This project will address the following gaps:
1) An institutional system that allows regular interaction and dialogue among national warning information providers, such as the NMHS, disaster management organizations, and communities at-risk to keep the tsunami warning system active and communities alert. At present, interactions are mostly event response-based, hence disaster preparedness and response do not adequately meet the demands of situations created by emergencies. At-risk community participation and feedback are essential in these meetings to ensure that warning reaches the last mile, is responded to, and is relevant to user needs.
Of the 26 countries participating in the RIMES-facilitated early warning system, Bangladesh and Philippines have this experience through demonstration projects in seasonal climate forecast application, supported by USAID’s Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA); and Cambodia and Vietnam through demonstration projects in enhancing coastal community resilience to natural disasters, supported by DANIDA. For Bangladesh, the experience needs to be extended to tsunami warning.
Support from the ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness is being sought, through this project, for Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand. These countries have poor and low-income groups in low elevation coastal zones that are vulnerable to inundation from high tides, large waves, storm surges, or high river flows (refer to Table 9, Annex 2), and were affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. They are members of the RIMES and expressed interest to participate in the project.
2) Warning information products that are usable in decision-making, around which regular interaction between warning provider and communities at-risk would be centred, compared to the current event-based interaction. Development of these products need to consider user needs in terms of content, language, lead time, timing and channel of delivery. Table 6, Annex 2 shows the various institutions involved in the generation and delivery of tsunami and hydro-meteorological warning information.
Further, the project addresses capacity gaps identified in the pilot countries (refer to Table 4, Annex 2), which relate to the critical areas of downscaling to generate location-specific warning information, and in interpreting and translating such information to user-friendly formats for local level applications.
It is to be noted that the role of RIMES is to provide research and development support to fill gaps in the regional and /or national systems. It aims to complement WMO operational arrangements for the provision of weather and related forecasting products, by translating severe weather and related forecast research and development into improved operational forecast products and application by Member Countries. In collaboration with WMO’s Public Weather Services Programme, RIMES also facilitates a strengthened interface between operational forecasters and disaster managers, by enhancing the latter’s capability to utilize operational forecast products for making informed decisions for reducing disaster risks.
Within this project, WMO is expected to implement a severe weather and related forecasting system for the Bay of Bengal region, focused on extreme weather and related phenomena, including strong winds, heavy precipitation, large waves and storm surges. Within the framework of WMO scientific and technical programmes, the NMHSs in the Bay of Bengal region will benefit from the cascading concept of the forecasting process, which would help developing countries and LDCs to access and implement the most relevant global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS)-based products, including those for marine forecasting, from the WMO’s Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS), for improving warning services to end-users and generating specific and localized disaster risk information.
RIMES is also recognized by ICG/IOTWS, at its 5th session (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, April 2008), as a potential regional tsunami watch provider (RTWP) in its network of inter-operable system of RTWPs. RIMES is working towards full recognition as an operational RTWP and, in this regard, adheres to ICG/IOTWS standards and requirements, and ensures that activities complement and are coordinated with ICG/IOTWS. ICG/IOTWS, at its 7th Session (Banda Aceh, April 2010), requested RIMES to exchange tsunami early warning information with other RTWPs in the region.
The project will complement and build on ongoing efforts in the target countries, such as by UNESCO/IOC on developing tsunami standard operating procedures in Myanmar, and UNDP on establishment of Emergency Operations Centres (EOCs) and last-mile preparedness in small island communities in the Maldives. A simulation exercise through this project can test these, identify gaps and support critical actions needed to address gaps.
The RIMES Executive Board, in its meeting held in Bangkok (April 2010), evolved a Master Plan to be implemented in the next 5 years (2010-2014). Addressing coastal hazards in low elevation coastal zones has been adopted as one of the priority regional programs for RIMES Member States.
This project also addresses comprehensive risk assessments, education and public awareness, and local level pilot demonstration activities, which are among the key needs identified in the “Report on Regional Unmet Needs and Recommendations: Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia”.
Importantly, this project addresses the TEWS within a multi-hazard framework to ensure long-term sustainability of TEWS, and community preparedness and response strategies.
Problem Analysis and Project Design
National stakeholder meetings were conducted in Maldives, Myanmar and Sri Lanka from June – September 2006, with support from the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), to clarify stakeholder roles in end-to-end multi-hazard warning, identify gaps in their warning dissemination systems, and recommend a set of actions for improvement, with an overall goal of improving community response to warnings. In Thailand, noting the need to build the National Disaster Warning Centre’s (NDWC) capacity, a training workshop was conducted in August 2006 on disaster risk communication, with particular focus on target warning recipients, warning content, inter-agency coordination and user feedback, to complement the Tsunami Alert Rapid Notification System (TARNS) initiative of the US Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (US-IOTWS) programme.
These stakeholder meetings brought together, in a dialogue, institutions involved in generating warning information for tsunami, large waves, storm surges and other natural hazards experienced in low elevation coastal areas, institutions that deliver these information to communities at-risk, institutions and organizations that utilize these information to assist during emergencies, and representatives from communities who were most affected by the December 2004 tsunami. For Maldives, Myanmar and Sri Lanka, the meetings were the first of its kind that involved a wide range of stakeholders, including community representatives. A key recommendation of these meetings is periodic stakeholders meetings to review system performance, receive user feedback, and identify problems and actions needed.
These meetings and training workshop also identified the following gaps, among others:
• Internal linkages between departments within and among stakeholder institutions;
• Information gaps from warning centres cause loss in media credibility;
• More accurate, area-specific, concise, clear/ not confusing user-friendly warnings;
• Information on anticipated duration of threat;
• Language of warning messages;
• Targeted warning in hazard-prone areas;
• Warning dissemination channels;
• Research and development capacity.
The project was then designed to meet the gaps identified above, with the following key components and elements:
1. Strengthening institutional capabilities at national and regional levels for end-to-end warning systems for tsunamis, storm surges, large waves and other natural hazards:
a. At least twice a year stakeholder forums to review system performance, receive user feedback, and identify problems and actions needed.
b. Local communities are capacitated to:
i. Receive warnings 24/7. Warning points are established in select communities and connected to warning institutions from national to local levels, and able to receive and disseminate warnings through effective communication pathways;
ii. Respond to emergencies. Emergency Operations Centres are established, trained and practiced.
c. At least twice a year visits by national warning centre officials to local communities to ensure functionality and effectiveness of the end-to-end warning systems.
2. Building institutional capacities for the application of warning information products in decision-making:
a. Training of users in the translation of these products for decision-making;
b. Demonstration of the transmission, translation and application of these warning information products in select low elevation coastal locations for risk reduction.
Targeted NMHSs in Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand endorsed the above project design and adopted this programme in their participation in the RIMES Executive Board meeting (April 2010)
The project aims to reduce tsunami, storm surges, large waves and other hazard risks in low elevation coastal zones by strengthening institutional systems for end-to-end warning, and building institutional capacities for the application of warning information products in decision-making.
Key activities include:
• Institutionalizing early warning multi-stakeholder national forums, consisting of sectoral agencies, local institutions and authorities, and NGO and community representatives from select locations, to gather information and assess disaster risk management and emergency preparedness capacities in participating countries, and assist them in planning at national to local levels to be able to take proactive actions to reduce risks associated with coastal-related disasters, through the development of a basic set of standard operating procedures between the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), other stakeholders, and communities at risk. These include regular review of the warning system performance, receive user feedback, and identify problems and actions needed for an improved end-to-end, multi-hazard, people-centred warning system.
• Catalyzing the institutionalization of regular user dialogues, involving national warning centre officials and high-risk (pilot) communities. These also provide opportunities for public education and awareness-raising, and evaluation of the “last mile warning”.
• Providing training and infrastructure to ensure that pilot communities are connected to the warning system, with institutional capacity to receive and disseminate warnings 24/7 through effective communication pathways and to respond to emergencies.
• Establishing institutional mechanisms for the receipt and translation of location-specific disaster risk information into impact outlook, preparation of response options, communication of this information to populations at-risk, monitoring of application in decision-making, and receiving feedback for system improvement.
• Training of disaster management and civil protection officers in vulnerable sectors, including disaster management committees, at national and sub-national levels, in the translation of location-specific disaster risk information into impact outlook and preparation of response options.
• Training of local project implementation working groups, consisting of the local disaster management committee and representatives of community-based organizations and pilot communities, in historical hazard impact, community and household vulnerability, coping strategy, and user need assessments; risk profile development; and determining thresholds for various hazard magnitudes and intensities.
• Facilitating better emergency preparedness and response by determining thresholds of risk areas and user requirements, to generate high-resolution location-specific disaster risk information, by generating and providing forecasting guidance and warning services for extreme coastal hazards events through improving NMHSs’ access to available and most relevant global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)-based products, including those for marine forecasting, from major NWP centres of WMO’s Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS).
• Training NMHSs in generating user-focused and tailored products and services for disaster risk reduction.
• Demonstration of the application of location-specific disaster risk information in decision-making to reduce disaster risks
• Annual regional sharing and learning workshop, targeting non-project countries, to share project experiences, practices, tools, methods, lessons and successes.
Results / Outputs
Expected project outcomes
1) Regular interactions of early warning institutions, disaster managers and communities through biennial multi-stakeholder forums, regular user dialogues, and early warning system checks at community level, and delivery, translation, communication and application of location-specific disaster risk information would keep community and stakeholder interests in tsunami warning and ensure that last mile communication systems are working.
• At least 15 technical institutions, sectoral agencies, sub-national and local institutions and authorities, NGO and pilot community representatives participating in each national multi-stakeholder forums
• NMHS and national warning agency visit pilot communities twice a year for a user dialogue, warning system evaluation (with particular focus on last mile communication), and awareness raising
• At least 8 sub-national working groups are able to translate location-specific disaster risk information from NMHS into impact outlook and response options, and communicate these to local working groups
• At least 8 local working groups communicate location-specific disaster risk information, impact outlook and response options to more than 80% of households in the pilot community
2) Early warning stakeholder institutions use the biennial multi-stakeholder forums to enhance inter-agency coordination, receive seasonal climate and hydrological outlooks for use in planning, provide feedback and identify actions to continuously improve tsunami, large waves, storm surges and other hazard warning
Indicator: At least 10 national forum meetings received reports on actions taken by stakeholder institutions vis-à-vis recommendations and plan of action from previous forum
3) Population at-risk use location-specific disaster risk information in decision-making to reduce disaster risks.
Indicator: At least 8 communities provide feedback on receipt of information, actions taken, and recommendations for improvement